Is Bitcoin a bubble that’s about to burst? Economists say ...

Bitcoin Obituaries Lists Another Crypto Eulogy, 2020 BTC Deaths in the Single Digits

The infamous “Bitcoin Obituaries” has seen another addition to the long list of deaths since bitcoin’s oldest death on December 15, 2010. According to the list of articles with 382 deaths to-date, bitcoin was declared dead again on September 4, 2020.
Ever since Satoshi Nakamoto released the decentralized network, a number of people have doubted bitcoin and over the years some individuals have deemed the project “dead.”
Famous people, journalists, economists, luminaries, and many more have written long-winded essays on why the cryptocurrency is sure to fail. The website 99 Bitcoins maintains a list of “Bitcoin Obituaries” collected over the years and so far there’s been 382 deaths in total.
This past weekend the crypto economy slid in value considerably, as a number of digital currencies lost between 15-35% during the last seven days. Out of the top ten coins in terms of market capitalization, binance coin (BNB) staved off the market rout by only losing 12% and bitcoin (BTC) lost a touch over 16%.
The rest of the top ten crypto assets lost a much larger percentage, as coins like ETH and DOT lost close to 30%. Despite this, another bitcoin obituary was listed on September 4, when BTC dropped to $10,500 per coin.
The death stems from the web portal Newsbtc and it was written by Uri Shalev who titled the article: “Bitcoin is Worthless in Long-term.” Shalev says that even Warren Buffet won’t go near the crypto asset and BTC must be a bubble.
“In contrast, bitcoin or other digital currencies are very likely worthless in the long term, and those are the kind of assets that investing legend Warren Buffet won’t touch,” Shalev writes. “It’s these latter kinds of assets that have a greater chance to be in bubble territory because they don’t generate cash flow to support their valuations.”
submitted by Eugenebtc to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

In case you missed it: Major Crypto and Blockchain News from the week ending 12/14/2018

Developments in Financial Services

Regulatory Environment

General News


submitted by QuantalyticsResearch to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Four Types of Valuation Models

"Have you heard of Bitcoin?"
No doubt you have, and it's likely you've not only heard of it, but you've heard of it in the form of this question 100 times over the last year. In fact, second to any mention of Donald Trump, this question may be the most tired phrase of 2017.
But if you had asked this question even a year ago, you would have gotten near-unanimous no's. In fact, seven years ago today, Bitcoiin had just reached its first 'bubble.' At $31.00, Bitcoin was certainly overvalued, the market said. And over the following 6 months, its price dropped back down to $2.00. Looking back, we think "Wow, what an opportunity, imagine if I'd bought it back then." And hindsight is 20/20, but how could we have known?
Well, this is the question some are now asking within the cryptocurrency community, and on Wall Street, albeit less publicly. Now I'll assume you've heard of Bitcoin, and are aware of the existence of thousands of other cryptocurrencies. Believe it or not, you probably know as much if not more about the tech than most people who are already invested.
Investment in cryptocurrency is a global phenomenon with few barriers to entry. This has brought those wiith no background in investing into the market, and because of that, the ways people value each 'currency' varies, especially in complexity. They use different heuristics which roughly fit four categories. I call them tiers, paradigms, levels - they're the lenses through which investors look at cryptocurrencies.
Tier One is a surface glance at a cryptocurrency and looks exclusively at price. Crypto markets saw a rush of presumably novice investors jumping on the bandwagon to invest in Ripple (XRP) and Cardano (ADA), two of the lowest priced cryptocurrencies because of their relatively high circulating supply, which results in a high market cap (although what crypto enthusiasts call market cap is more accurately monetary base). Most websites that provide historical price info for cryptocurrencies rank by market cap. This leads us to the next tier of crypto valuation.
Tier Two is a little more complex, but still an 'at a glance' kind of valuation. Investors with a "Tier Two" lens are looking at market cap relative to other cryptocurrencies', particularly to market caps of a currency's competitors. For example, blockchains in the cloud computing space have 3 main players: Golem (GNT), with a monetary base of $287.6 million, iEx.ec (RLC) at $65.8 million, and SONM (SNM) with a total value of $51.7 million for the entire outstanding supply of all SONM tokens - the currencies required to use the SONM network. Analysts might note that RLC has an excellent team and little marketing to date, or that SONM is going after a different market of service providers by leveraging smart devices.
Tier Three models begin to look at the factors which make each protocol unique and might provably affect its price. This includes mechanisms to improve the function of the network, like staking, and overtly deflationary price mechanisms like Binance (BNB)'s quarterly burn rate. There are still other mechanis ms in existence and more yet to be created which are starting to be used by developers and project leads to increase the value of a currency by some means - most fundamentally by increasing demand or decreasing supply.
Tiers One, Two, and Three all look at basic indicators in isolation, with a view of the scope of the technology's impact in view. A Tier Four view looks at a way to value a cryptocurrency by its intrinsic worth - as an economist or analyst would. Surprisingly, but perhaps not so, few people are doing this, at least publicly. One of the reasons is because the overlap of disciplines required. There are a few burgeoning thought leaders in this area, namely Chris Burniske, who co-authored Cryptoassets which gives an excellent look at the different types of cryptocurrencies with an economic and technology-focused view.
The fundamental recognition that most investors in cryptocurrencies don't have is that these are currencies, and therefore shouldn't be valued like stocks. Most don't pay dividends, and many have mechanisms to increase their price by creating demand for large quantities and locking up supply through a deposit system called staking. Stakes are essentially deposits given as collateral by network hosts who are paid to maintain the blockchain (miners), escrowed by the network to disincentivize bad actors. Burniske wrote an article which factors these in with his own assumptions in the resulting model - a good read, but a little more math-heavy.
Burniske's model revolves around the Equation of Exchange, an economic model for valuing traditional currencies, based on M1 and other factors. Other compelling models involve the Network Value to Transactions ratio (NVT), and the number of transactions per second on a blockchain (Tx/s). Each of these approaches can be used to approximate the intrinsic value of a cryptocurrency, and are what I would call Tier Four models. Interestingly, results in each often vastly deviate from current prices. For reasons including still-rampant speculation on cryptocurrencies and insufficiently nuanced models informing most investors, we can expect this trend to continue until there are more well-thought out models, discussions, and thought leaders in the space. Until then, the faults in others' current paradigms present an excellent opportunity for the savvy analyst.
submitted by natehenderson to CryptoMarkets [link] [comments]

Crypto Rollercoaster: Explaining the Recent Market Performance

https://www.ccn.com/crypto-rollercoaster-explaining-the-recent-market-performance/
Just when it appeared that the cryptocurrency market was about to bottom out just a fortnight ago (with Bitcoin reaching a reported 14-month volatility low), the market subsequently started displaying indicators of a directional shift.
Last week however, we saw a short-term appreciation in value. In typical crypto fashion it was just as rapid if not more so than the recent decline and Bitcoin, in particular, was observed to have exceeded “a key resistance level at $7,000 after breaking out of the $6,800 mark… crucial for the short-term recovery of Bitcoin.”.
Right now however, we are looking at what some mainstream media organisations have described as an ominous price-crash: if not full-blown ‘meltdown’.

Causation Between News and Value?

The reasons for the crash – like many before – are likely plenty, such as the theory of market manipulation by wealthy crypto-barons, amongst other interested parties.
Just looking at the news recently, we can identify a handful of reported events and moments which might have contributed, coincided with or preceded this rapid deppreciation in value. They include:

Looking at the Market

The large fall in value could be considered either a correction or a short relief. Either way, it is fair to say that if the market were to return to a more positive trajectory: we could expect the collective growth to be reflective year-over-year, exponentially.
Coinschedule (an “ICO listing and cryptocurrency portal”) recorded $3.695 billion total funds raised in 217 from 209 ICOs. By compairson, the same site records 500% times more investment this year (up until August 2nd, 2018) – with $17.489 billion gathered from 686 ICOs so far.
It is still important to bear in mind the sobering fact that a great number of ICOs and cryptocurrencies fail.

Additional Studies and Observations

Cezary Graf (AKA Crypto Poland) is a Polish blockchain enthusiast who recently shared a tweet which featured an image which depicted where ‘Bitcoin & The Crypto’ as a collective industry would place in Statista’s list of ‘The 100 largest companies in the world by market value in 2018 (in billions of U.S. dollars)‘.

Graf’s post only provided information from the first page and 10 entries of Statista’s list. This suggests that the total industry value is comparable with the likes of Apple, Alphabet, and Amazon (The Big A’s) – whose combined value is over $2471.1 billion.

Veering beyond these pages however and considering cryptocurrency’s overall market value has surpassed $262,5 billion. Comparatively it would fit it closer to 17th place – best resembling the following trio of financial industry giants.
Statista isn’t the only organization to perform and curate in-depth analysis of blockchain and the cryptocurrency investment market.
Back in 2017, PricewaterhouseCoopers (AKA PwC) performed an investigation into the same criteria – entitled ‘Global Top 100 Companies by Market Capitalisation, 31 March 2017 Update’ with similar results.

The Market Future & ICOs as a ‘Bubble’

Some of the great issues, conversely, plaguing the crypto market include fraudulent and scam ICOs: as well as honest projects which simply offer little to no value to justify their price or existence.
This is in addition to (and arguably supported by) an almost universal lack of effective regulations or standards to prevent such tokens, and has led to some going as far as to call ICOs an ‘investment bubble’.
If true, the space will prove unsustainable if it continues on its current trajectory: a claim which has been thrown around by those in the industry since at least the end of 2017. If, however, things continue as they are right now then we are likely to enjoy a profitable end of 2018.

Court of the Crypto Kings

No matter the market status: the value of many a cryptocurrency lies in their viability and practical effectiveness of their end-goals, and means of achieving them.
Bitcoin of course is the original cryptocurrency and has established its value through its integrity (public whitepaper and open-source nature), as well as it’s practical effectiveness and the rate of adoption it has enjoyed upon implementation.
Ethereum is arguably one of the most successful challengers to the BTC throne so far. The project helped to instigate the now-prevalent ‘Blockchain As A Service’ (BaaS) sector, and offers a platform upon which new utility tokens can be constructed – powered by ‘Ether’.
Lightning Bitcoin is an example of the new market contenders. One of many which offer a direct and highly competitive alternative to many of the key features associated with Bitcoin. According to their website: ‘LBTC’s utilitarian value as a tradeable currency is boosted by its speed and low-cost transaction fees.

Looking at New Securities

Security Tokens’ comprise a much newer field, which has been quoted to have contributed to the major crypto-crash back in January 2018. The first of these digital securities contracts were sold in December of the previous year and expired the following month – and thus, correlated with the market drop.
There has been a lot of news regarding security tokens over the past year, including attempts to either regulate or otherwise ensure a level of safety with regards to risk and fraud prevention, as well as protection of funds. These efforts come from a combination of governments and independent projects and organizations.
MOBU is one of these projects and seeks to utilize a proprietary utility token (the eponymous ERC20 ‘MOBU’) to power its “end-to-end solution for ICOs to launch compliant security tokens on the blockchain.”. Features of MOBU cited include KYC / AML compliance integration, enforced and maintained through Ethereum based smart-contracts.
This is in addition to what they call the “MOB20 protocol will define a set of commands that a compliant security token should implement.”

submitted by stutterisland13 to LightningBTC [link] [comments]

SWISSBORG´S DAILY INSIDER - WEEK 26

https://preview.redd.it/d9frh2lct3611.png?width=1000&format=png&auto=webp&s=06f0a0597f341bd7e6cbe3dce47522db2432b8f4

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Friday, 29. June 2018

Binance Opens Its First Crypto-Fiat Exchange in Uganda The world's largest cryptocurrency exchange has just launched a fiat trading pair in Uganda.
Bank of England: Deputy Governor Warns Financial Institutions of Crypto Asset Risks A Bank of England deputy governor has written a letter of warning on June 28, to CEOs of financial institutions about the risks of exposure to crypto assets.
South Korean Financial Watchdog Releases Stricter AML Guidelines for Virtual Currencies South Korea’s top financial regulator has released a set of revised AML guidelines for virtual currencies, according to a press release published this week.
Daily Performances
General Comments: There have been a mix bag of news coming out over the last 24 hours. In general there have been both positive and negative news but for choice the market seems concerned more about the negatives (eg. some exchanges giving in to Japanese regulator pressure). BTC broke below USD6'000 again in extremely light volumes (USD11 billion according to Coinmarketcap in the last 24H). More time will be needed to escape the doldrums and turn the tides.

Weekly Top 5 Price comparison
- BTC . - ETH . - XRP . - BCH . - EOS
Technical Analysis - BTC Bitcoin price nursing nominal losses on Friday, heading for a second straight month of declines at around 20%. BTC/USD has been producing lower highs and lower lows, which point to a potential larger move to the downside. The key near-term support is eyed at the 24th June low, around USD5'759
https://preview.redd.it/2wl8t73cmx611.png?width=1344&format=png&auto=webp&s=6e9dab79384f149383b5c6f4dfe2728ec59e1ec6
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Thursday, 28. June 2018

World’s Second Largest Crypto Exchange Binance Resumes Operations After ‘Risk Warning’Binance has resolved a “risk warning” that had halted trades and withdrawals since yesterday.
US Authorities Seize Over $20M in Crypto in Massive Darknet CrackdownUS authorities' agents had been operating undercover on the Darknet for the past year. The massive operation uncovered the true identity of over fifty vendors on sites.
Huobi Pro is Suspending Cryptocurrency Trading for Users in JapanA lack of registration with the country’s financial regulator will see cryptocurrency exchange Huobi Pro suspend services to users in Japan next month.
Daily Performances
General Comments: Most of the top ten coins are seeing a mild recovery. EOS and IOTA have seen the largest gains, respectively trading up 6.08 and 4.34% over the 24h. Total market cap is around USD247 billion, up almost 6% from this week’s low on June 24 of USD235 billion.However, the reverse ban on crypto advertisement by Facebook had no impact on the cryptocurrency markets in any way in the short-term. Unless the volume of major digital assets spike up in the next 24 to 48 hours, it is unlikely that the market initiates a large corrective rally and loses more value in the short-term.

Weekly Top 5 Price comparison
- BTC . - ETH . - XRP . - BCH . - EOS
Technical Analysis - BTC
Bitcoin price is under pressure below USD6'200 against the US Dollar. BTC/USD must stay above the USD6'000 support to avoid further losses in the near term.
https://preview.redd.it/wiapn1528p611.png?width=1024&format=png&auto=webp&s=97ff5b1e6d1e6fd3c0f478615a7b18d11ce789ad
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Wednesday, 27. June 2018

Facebook is reversing its ban on some cryptocurrency ads Advertisers will need to apply, but ICO ads are still banned.
Nobel Economist Naysayer Robert Shiller Calls Bitcoin A ‘Social Movement’ Robert Shiller, who has called bitcoin a bubble, has observed that bitcoin is a social movement and its popularity in the U.S. varies based on geography.
Exclusive: Maltese Parliament to Pass Second Reading on 3 Crypto BillsT he Maltese Parliament will be passing the 3 cryptocurrency and blockchain bills through their second reading later on today, CCN can exclusively reveal.
https://preview.redd.it/dq9rvouiyj611.png?width=1076&format=png&auto=webp&s=e9b28a1ab94929c67b2f988ead0775738d312511
Technical Analysis - BTC
BTCUSD price dropped to 6000 to reflect the return in selling pressure and a stronger downside momentum. The price recovered from early losses reached at USD6'006, but still in the red zone on daily basis. The local support is created by USD16'137, followed by USD6'194. On the downside, USD6'000 serves as a critical support, followed by Sunday's low at USD5'777.
Daily Performances
General Comments: Most coins are in red again as the recovery momentum proved to be too weak to take prices above critical resistance levels. While no one knows for sure when this bear market hit the bottom, ceteris paribus, we will continue hitting new lows for the foreseeable future. Bitcoin is changing hands at USD6'080, down 2.4% on daily basis.
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Tuesday, 26. June 2018

South Korea to Invest $230M in Blockchain Technology DevelopmentSouth Korea revealed a Blockchain Technology Development Strategy on June 21st earmarking a total of 230 billion Won toward its development.
Crowdfunding Token Sales, the New ICO?The EU is to raise the crowdfunding exemption from accredited investors rules to €8 million ($9.35 million) from the current €5 million.
Robinhood Aims to Disrupt Further by Launching a Cryptocurrency WalletRobinhood is working on a crypto wallet. This would allow their customers to move their crypto from other wallets and brokerages into the platform without having to sell them first.
Daily Performances
General Comments: As Bitcoin bounced back after crashing below USD6,000 at the end of the previous week, some crypto bulls come out with optimistic views. Crypto bulls struggle to calm down speculative panic on the market by reminding traders and investors that Bitcoin has a history of deep corrections and even downside trends, but in the longer-term perspective it is still a viable investment and revolutionary concept.

Weekly Top 5 Price comparison
- BTC . - ETH . - XRP . - BCH . - EOS
Technical Analysis - BTC
BTC is changing hands at USD6,246, off Monday's high reached at USD6,300, but still in the green zone on daily basis. Once USD6,300 handle is cleared, the ultimate resistance of USD6,400 with come into focus. A sustainable break higher is vital for extended recovery.
https://preview.redd.it/408dqus6zb611.png?width=1344&format=png&auto=webp&s=7300a6bab7069a47dbd4557514a28df757716159
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Monday, 25. June 2018

Why Tech Darlings Robinhood and Square Don't Care About Crypto ProfitsRobinhood said that the company does not expect to generate large profits from its cryptocurrency platform in short-term, and the company is fine with it.
Quebec Is Weighing A Plan to Sell 500 Megawatts to Crypto MinersHydro-Quebec has submitted to the Quebec government the main guidance to select crypto companies to work with.
ICO incubators are kickstarting the future of cryptocurrencyGlobal Blockchain Technologies Corp. (TSXV:BLOC.V, OTC:BLKCF) and others like it are helping new ICOs succeed with its ICO incubator.
Daily Performances
With BTC traversing below the psychological USD6'000 level and temporarily breaching USD5'800, this consummates the USD5'000 to USD20'000 round trip since the rally starting November of 2017. The market has since recovered above 6'000 but the recent price action can be described as a slow motion bleed out in thin volumes and a lack of large participation. There have been a multitude of news catalysts, mostly negative, that could have caused this such as continued exchange hacks, regulatory tightening, and most recently negative price action from the much hyped EOS. As can be seen from extremely low option implied vols, none of the recent moves indicate any level of panic. As we approach summer it is possible we see a prolonged period of doldrums, but external geopolitical and economic factors could be a catalyst for a turn in the market.
https://preview.redd.it/mxmx97ejt3611.png?width=872&format=png&auto=webp&s=0e547f7317c3870d8f9ffc375d8423f8ef96789c
Technical Analysis - BTC
We saw a big reversal on Sunday, a lot of it seemed to be fuelled via short covering on BitMEX, where we saw sizeable short liquidations and a marked decrease in open interest on the swap. At the moment the movement remains a short term bounce and we remain in a downtrend on the daily chart, a close above 6'800 would change our bearish view and turn it into bullish.
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Many thanks to Mariem @SwissBorg for providing us with THE latest news.
Disclaimer: Insider aims to provide our community with updates and information regarding financial markets and the blockchain world.This is our way of communicating with our community. It is meant to be used for informational purposes not to be mistaken for financial advice.Our opinion, when shared, is just that, it may not apply directly to your individual situation. Any information gleaned here is to be used at the readers' own risk, SwissBorg does not accept any responsibility for individual decisions made based on reading our daily blog. Any information we provide on our daily blog is accurate and true to the best of our knowledge, there may be omissions, errors or mistakes.
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submitted by lioness444 to swissborg [link] [comments]

3 reasons why Bitcoin price is falling

Bitcoin price when compared to last year has eroded substantially this year till date. And, the plunge hasn’t stopped yet. The fall in the prices of the digital currencies is primarily due to the two reasons. Bitcoin price was trading at $9,761.91 up 2.58 percent on Coindesk today at the time of reporting.The highest it reached today was 9,804.55. Despite these slight gains, there is still a long way to go before the virtual currency matches the highs set by it last year. Here are the three reasons behind Bitcoin price fall. Last week three negative news related with cryptocurrencies triggered their plunge.The first was related with Nobuaki Kobayashi, the Mt. Gox. Trustee, that he sold $400 million of Bitcoin and Bitcoin cash in the January and February this year. He still owns $1.7 billion worth of Bitcoins and this is adding further fears in the market.
Then there was a rumour in the market that popular crypto exchange Binance has been hacked in an attempt to influence Viacoin’s price. Securities Exchange Commission (SEC) issued a statement last week that cryptocurrency platforms should not be called by the name of exchanges since it creates an illusion of regulated activity. Investors are misguided in believing various online trading platforms to be SEC-registered and regulated marketplaces when they are not, SEC said. Even the Financial Services Agency (FSA) came out with a statement that domestic cryptocurrency exchanges will be suspended. All these factors lead to nearly 11 percent plunge in Bitcoin price.
Last month, Nouriel Roubini, the famous economist who successfully predicted the US housing crash in 2008, said that Bitcoin is mother of all bubbles and it’s also the biggest bubble in human history if you compare it to Mississippi bubble, tech bubble, and Tulip mania.
submitted by mehra11vinod to Thecryptoadvice [link] [comments]

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“It keeps going up and up, therefore it's not a bubble.” Not the most insightful defense of bitcoin, any economist would tell you, but the most frequently used nonetheless.All bubbles go up, a long way up, sufficiently long to trap you in a false sense of security, before blowing up in your face and turning to ashes. A former Morgan Stanley economist believes that Bitcoin is one of the most dangerous speculative bubbles he has ever seen. The Future of Bitcoin As Bitcoin is constantly reaching a new all-time high price, many top economists and investors have come forward to predict how Bitcoin is going to perform in the future. As Bitcoin climbed higher and higher near the end of 2017, defenders of the cryptocurrency began to tout the platform’s potential to replace gold as the new safe-haven play for investors. Gans retorted, however, that this is incredibly unlikely. “People predicted that Bitcoin was going to burst when it was $100. Essentially, every economist ... Bubbles and Opportunities: An Economic Analysis of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain Technology. Zou David . Oct 19, 2018 · 15 min read (First draft: Jan 2018; This version: Sep 2018) Since 2017 ... Not just Bitcoin but Shiller has also talked about gold and other precious metals being bubbles that are highly overvalued compared to their inherent usefulness in manufacturing. However, Shiller has always maintained an interest in the blockchain technology that has given birth to Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies and how this technology may revolutionize the world for a better tomorrow. Economist and Bitcoin Foundation founding director Jon Matonis went on record to reaffirm his belief in Bitcoin’s future last month, dispelling bubble fears. In an Apr 2 interview with Business Insider, during the Innovate Finance conference in London, Matonis took the opportunity to tell the mainstream media publication that the concept of Bitcoin being in a ‘bubble’ was hypocritical. Home Basics Of Bitcoin Economist Breaks Down Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency w/Richard Wolff Economist Breaks Down Bitcoin & Cryptocurrency w/Richard Wolff . August 10, 2019 admin Basics Of Bitcoin 43. Richard Wolff breaks down investments, everything from 401Ks to Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin. Here’s How You Can Support Our Show & Independent Media! Subscribe to Get more stuff like this. Subscribe ...

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#848 Bitcoin Nutzung sinkt, Binance Kauf Coinmarketcap 400 Millionen & BCH, BSV, BTC Halving

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